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Ever since the Russian-Georgian struggle broke out, many questions arose on whether a new Cold War will erupt.
Why does the Cold War issue merit such significance, although it does not cause casualties or destruction of cities?
Perhaps the reason lies in the disastrous economic outcomes of the last Cold War between 1945 and 1990, which are by no means less catastrophic than the outcomes of conventional wars.
The Cold War prevented the world from benefiting from scientific discoveries and achievements, under the pretext of protecting the military secrets of the eastern and western camps.
Meanwhile, huge fortunes were spent on armaments and other non-productive work, which negatively affected the economies of many countries and caused living standards to deteriorate in others, especially in the developing world.
Following the end of the Cold War, some of these discoveries were revealed, including the internet and advanced communications equipment, which provided great service to humanity.
Would the reckless military adventure of a small country or the conflict of interests in this vital region send the whole world backwards?
There is no doubt that the Caucasus, which is a meeting point of interests and oil and gas supply networks, can play a vital role in economic cooperation between countries.
It seems that these economic effects are not fully thought through by those who fan the fire of conflict in the region.
The European Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which is present in the region through its inspectors, accurately analysed the targets of Georgian President Mikael Saakashvili.
These targets were confirmed by Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek and former American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who pointed out the difficulty of achieving these aims under the currently prevailing regional power balance.
Time only proves the saying of former British prime minister Winston Churchill, who once said, "There are no permanent friends, only permanent interests."
Today, Russia supplies Europe with about 60 per cent of its oil and gas by means of pipelines that snake through many Europeans countries.
This is significant due to the tremors in the Middle East and North Africa as well as the huge Russian oil and gas reserves, and the fact that Russia, with its 140 million residents, has become a big consumer market for European products.
Russia imports advanced technologies and modern consumer products from Europe. It provides promising investment opportunities.
This relationship, which German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fully aware of, will rule the conflict in the Caucasus. The development of this relationship will reflect positively on the economies of the European Union and Russia.
These mutual strategic interests seem to have missed the consideration of the Georgian President, who applied pressure to suspend this cooperation during the last European Union Summit, but failed.
From this point we can say that the possibility of a new Cold War is remote, at least for the time being, when economic and strategic interests of world countries, including European countries, became entangled in an unprecedented way in the past 15 years.
However, if the world enters a new Cold War, this will coincide with energy and food crises unknown during the last Cold War, when the price of the oil barrel was less than $2.
The economic and social outcomes of such war will be disastrous, so much so that the outcomes of the first Cold War would look like a small crisis in comparison.
The writer is a UAE economic expert.
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