Who could have believed that the pro-Western government of Georgia would be foolish enough to take on mighty Russia! And especially when 'the prize' is nothing more than a tiny enclave whose population overwhelmingly wants to maintain their de facto independence and close relations with Moscow.
Indeed, an estimated 70 per cent of South Ossetia's 70,000-strong population hold Russian citizenship.
It's been less than five years since Georgia's bloodless Rose Revolution when Georgia's President, Mikhail Saakashvili, replaced the 'White Fox' Eduard Shevardnadze promising to bring Georgia's breakaway regions back into the national fold.
To the cheers of the White House, which characterised the revolution as being one of the most powerful movements in modern history, he began to steer his country away from its Communist past towards Western Europe with one eye on the EU and the other on membership of Nato.
US President George W. Bush described Georgia as "a beacon of liberty" and Georgia volunteered troops to help wage Bush's war in Iraq.
Given recent events it's ironic that earlier this year Saakashvili expressed a desire to restore damaged ties with Russia and initiated a meeting with former president Vladimir Putin.
So what possessed him to "restore constitutional order" by ordering his troops to surround South Ossetia's capital Tshkinvali and advance into the city? He must have known this action would trigger a Russian military response.
Was he attempting to show-off his pre-Nato entry credentials perhaps? Or was the conflict orchestrated by the US as Chairman of the State Duma Committee for Security Vladimi Vasilyev believes?
"The things that were happening in Kosovo, the things that were happening in Iraq - we are now following the same path," he said.
"The further the situation unfolds, the more the world will understand that Georgia would never be able to do all this without America". If, indeed, Saakashvili acted on Washington's direction or after receiving a wink and a nod from the White House he's been taken for a ride.
Today, thousands of Georgian civilians are dead while thousands more are fleeing from Russian bombs in terror. Tshkinvali is said to have been reduced to smouldering ruin. Civilian and military targets within Georgia have come under Russian attack.
Moreover, his misadventure has already sparked conflict in another separatist province Abkhazia on the Black Sea, where Russia is determined to evict Georgian troops once and for all.
By the time you read this the war may have expanded to include another wannabe Nato member Ukraine, which has threatened to prevent Russian warships from returning to their Crimean base. A worst - though improbable - scenario could involve Russian tanks trundling through the streets of the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
Whether or not American hands have been pulling Georgia's strings for whatever nefarious reason, Saakasvili has played right into the hands of the Russian government, whose leaders have repeatedly announced that they regret the demise of the Soviet Union and will resist Nato and the EU from encroaching on its borders.
With coffers replete with oil and gas revenue and in an atmosphere of new nationalism, Russia has been itching to display its muscle for some time now.
This year, Moscow resumed its annual military parade following a long hiatus while its fighter planes have audaciously buzzed a US aircraft carrier. Russia's relationship with the West - in particular the US and Britain - has rarely been as strained.
Bone of contention
A major bone of contention is Washington's plan to set up interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar installation in the Czech Republic. Another revolves around Russia's refusal to extradite Andrei Lugovoi to Britain, where he is wanted in connection with the poisoning of a former KGB agent.
All Moscow needed was an excuse to show the world what this new heavyweight Russia was made of and Saakasvili, who has somewhat of a reputation for being an inexperienced hothead, for whatever reason, happily obliged.
Although this war was triggered by Georgia, Moscow is attracting international criticism for over-reacting. The US has called on Russia to end its campaign of terror; the secretary of Nato accuses Russia of using excessive force while a draft UN resolution blames Russia for its "assault".
Where were they when Israeli aircraft were pounding Lebanese cities and spraying the land with cluster bombs in the summer of 2006?
But if Saakasvili believes that his Western friends will come to his country's aid militarily, he's destined to be sorely disappointed just as the Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was when he hoped against hope that his so-called close allies - the US and Britain - would use their leverage with Israel to effect a ceasefire.
I suspect that when the Georgian president finally surveys the wreckage of his country brought about by his own naïve and ill thought out miscalculations, he will be forced to conclude, like so many other world leaders before him, that America has no friends, only interests.
More fool those who jeopardise the lives of people they have sworn to protect by believing otherwise... even for a moment.
Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com. Some of the comments may be considered for publication.
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