|
I was sitting in the dentist's chair the other day having some root canal work done, and she said to me: "You work for the Financial Times, so you must know what's going to happen to the economy. Should I be worried?"
I couldn't answer because half my face was paralysed with local anaesthetic and in my mouth was a wooden wedge, a tube extracting water, a high-speed drill and a woman's hand.
But even without all this getting in the way I still could not have answered as I don't have the foggiest idea.
None of us, not even the experts, has the first clue as to how it is all going to pan out. A week ago I was at a dinner party with two prominent economists.
One of them pronounced that this was a local difficulty: a crisis for banks, leaving the rest of the economy relatively untouched. The other said: nonsense, the economic effect would be severe, though not catastrophic.
For the past few months, the economy has been in the position of Wile E Coyote when he goes off the edge of the cliff but continues to run furiously in mid-air.
While the economy has been running in mid-air, something else has happened that no one seems to have noticed. Another market has crashed, bringing to an end one of the longest bull runs ever. The bottom has fallen out of management nonsense. In the past three weeks I have not received one daft e-mail or daft invitation to attend a management training course based on a study of ancient tribes.
No stupid theories, no strategy trees, no new management jargon, no nonsense of any sort. Since I started monitoring these things 15 years ago I have never known such a scarcity of silliness.
The bull run in management nonsense started some 26 years ago with the publication of In Search of Excellence. The book sparked a whole movement of gurus and charlatans, and resulted in managers saying things like "we need to relentlessly leverage customer delight" as if it made perfect sense.
The market in guff has not behaved like other markets. Usually, when prices get too frothy there is a correction. But in this market I have called the turn again and again, believing things had got so silly that sense would have to prevail before long.
Until now the market has shown no sign of responding to recession. The great layoffs in the US in the 1980s only encouraged it, spawning the language of downsizing, and the morally neutral idea of re-engineering.
So what is different this time?
It isn't just about money - or lack of money - though that is part of it. Management guff costs. When there is no money there is not a lot of sense to be found in sending one's entire team off on a two-day course to learn the leadership lessons of, say, King Lear or Attila the Hun.
The other ingredient is fear. If you are fighting for survival you focus on essential things. You want clarity; whereas management fads thrived on obfuscation.
In time, the money will come back and the fear will go and the management need to waffle pointlessly will reassert itself.
For now, I am going to have to resort to answering the dentist's lesser question: should she be worried? The answer is "not very".
There is no economic cycle in tooth decay and root canals. There is a market in the fancy stuff that dentists do now, fronts, onlays, implants and so on. But this could well be counter-cyclical: if the economy really is falling into a depression a perfectly rational response would be to invest in a mouthful of perfect white gnashers to cheer oneself up.
|
