US President George W. Bush and Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki have agreed to set a "general time horizon" for the withdrawal of more American troops from Iraq. This decision is a dramatic shift from the administration's ironclad unwillingness to talk about any kind of deadline or timetable.
As described by a prominent Iraqi politician, who requested annonymity, the Kurds support the US-Iraqi agreement, overtly and covertly, regardless of the future long or short term impact of any Iraqi-US alliance. Although the Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC) backs the agreement, it tries to portray that it is against it because the Shiite-dominated coalition does not want to be seen as a pro-US entity that is toeing the American line. The Fadhila Party, a Shiite party, too does not want to anger the US, and as such is also trying to strike the right balance.
Those who are bitterly against it are the Sadrists. The followers of Shiite leader Moqtada Al Sadr contest anything that the US proposes, regardless of the merits of such proposals and whether or not that will augur well for Iraq. One US General described their attitude as: "They refuse to tango, even if they lead".
Such a negative stance works against the interests of Iraq. It should be noted that in politics, there is no place for rigid positions.
Muwafaq Al Rubaei, Iraq's National Security Adviser, a physician who chose politics over his medical career, said in an e-mail:
"Iraq is developing 'time horizons' to end US combat operations and the presence of US combat brigades in Iraq. The time horizon will be discussed with US authorities to include arrangements that affirm Iraqi sovereignty and meet Iraqi requirements for US support after the end of the UN mandate for the multi-national forces at the end of December of this year".
On the other hand, Al Maliki's position is not an echo of Iran's growing worries and apprehensions about the Iraq-US deal. His is a true national conscious vision in which he has Iraq's interest at heart.
For the whole puzzle to fall into place, one needs to ask: What changed the US perspective, and what is this new approach the Iraqi government is treading?
Impetus
The sharp drop in violence in Iraq - the lowest level in four years - has made the country's leaders increasingly confident when it comes to protecting the sovereignty of the country and have given them the impetus to deal with the US and on a specific plan for the withdrawal of American forces from the country.
The White House too is cooperating with the Iraqi leaders as it plans to conclude the deal by the end of this month. As time is limited, Bush and Al Maliki discussed a common way forward to conclude these negotiations as soon as possible. A general time horizon for meeting the goals, such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in Iraqi cities and provinces and the further reduction of American combat forces was also agreed upon.
Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for Bush's National Security Council, said: "The focus is on the Iraqi assumption of missions, not on what troop levels will be."
Presumptive Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, issued a statement saying, "Progress between the United States and Iraq on a time horizon for American troops' presence is further evidence that the surge has succeeded. ... If we had followed Senator [Barack] Obama's policy, Iraq would have descended into chaos, American casualties would be far higher, and the region would be destabilised".
And I may add here that the number of Iraqi causalities are also on the decline as the government is firmly in the saddle for the first time in five years. In my opinion, there are two major factors responsible for the improving situation in the country. The first is that the US is clearly not trying to twist Iraq's arm into a one-sided agreement or strategic alliance. It has been debating and negotiating on this for months now.
This is exactly what General David Petraeus tried and succeeded in advocating in Iraq with his "shout but do not shoot" policy.
The Iraqis have gotten used to their new found democracy, and they have succeeded in truly showing the world that truly, "shouting is better than shooting".
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