One month into 2006, UAE residents have started focusing on what lies ahead. They have many things to contemplate; there is the political atmosphere in the Middle East that encompasses the increasing influence of religious movements in various countries as well as the noteworthy trend of political reform (or democratisation) across the region.
Overall, Iran's nuclear aspirations as well as Syria's turbulent relationship with Lebanon seem to capture the attention of UAE residents. People are concerned with the notion of politicising Islamic movements, and the process of democratisation lingers on in the minds of all UAE residents.
Despite deep-seated worries about the political future of some countries in the Middle East, UAE residents show strong signs of optimism for 2006. That is the clear conclusion from this year's first survey in series of YouGov surveys for Gulf News where 823 residents answered questions concerning regional politics for both last year and this year.
UAE nationals and Arab expatriates constituted one quarter of respondents for this survey while Asian expatriates constituted one third.
In terms of regional politics, many events seem to be occurring simultaneously. Some countries in the Middle East are undergoing a general democratic reform while others have witnessed a politicisation of their Islamic movements.
But which country does the UAE consider the political hotspot for 2006? On the face of it, the majority of YouGov respondents collectively choose Iran (with more males than females supporting such a result). But a closer look at the results reveals a difference of opinion amongst nationalities. The majority of Western expatriates and Asian expatriates feel Iran will grab most attention where as UAE nationals as well other Arab Expatriates feel Syria will most likely dominate world news.
Equally for Arab respondents, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon come second after Syria, with each country capturing one fifth of the vote.
Negative impact
The majority of YouGov respondents feel Islamic movements in the Middle East, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, impact negatively on a society's politics. As the salary bracket increases beyond Dh3,901, so does the perception that this is the case.
Whether or not the Islamic movements' political influence has a positive impact on society is a more contentious issue. Most UAE residents strongly feel that the political influence has a negative impact upon society. Western expatriates are the ones most opinionated when it comes to this subject, whereas more Arabs think Islamic movements can be useful in politics.
What is more, age and money impact one's perception. It seems the older (and richer) the respondent is, the more likely he/she thinks that political influence of Islamic movements is harmful to any society.
Some respondents are sceptical of the extent of religious influence on politics. One respondent wrote: "I don't believe religion affects politics as much as the media positions it. The Christian movement in Palestine for example is just as strong as the Muslim one, but the media chooses to only deliver the Muslim part."
UAE residents are firm in their belief that they ought to choose their own political leaders. This perception is highest amongst the Western expatriates but followed closely by UAE nationals and Arab expatriates. It seems those belonging to the highest salary bracket (Dh29,280 and above) feel the strongest about "choosing" political leaders.
UAE residents are very optimistic about democratisation in the region. One respondent even wrote: "Democracy is gaining ground all over the world."
With the recent changes that have taken place in various countries, including Egypt and Kuwait, more people anticipate similar outcomes for the rest of the Middle East. In fact, more than half of the respondents across all nationalities said democratisation will increase in the coming years. Interestingly, men were more optimistic than women on this subject by a margin of slightly more than 10 per cent.
Democratic path
Naturally, each Arab country walks its own path to reach a more democratic status. Some might realise this goal a lot sooner than others. With that in mind, we asked our YouGov respondents which country they felt would make attempts to adopt a democratic form of electoral representation. In fact, we narrowed it down to which country is most likely to implement change in 2006.
To the surprise of some, the UAE topped the list, with UAE nationals as well as Arab, Western and Asian expatriates choosing their resident country.
According to the Arab expatriate community, Syria was second to show attempts at reform. This is perhaps due to the fact that Syria has been at the receiving end of international pressure, not least as a result of the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
This opinion is not shared by the rest of the UAE residents, who seem to concentrate on the Gulf states as showing the most potential for democratic reform. In order from most likely to least likely to reform, they are: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This result was persistent through out the different age categories. Countries like Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen amply featured on the list.
YouGov respondents are worried that there might be too much pressure from the West on this region to democratise. One respondent wrote: "Democratic issues in the Middle East should not be forced by Western countries" arguing that many countries are happy the way they are.
Overall, residents of this country are content with how the past year unfolded. Less than one third said 2005 was not good for them. Western and Asian expatriates especially felt very positive about last year.
Asking our respondents how they viewed 2006 meant they would test their feelings towards the unknown. A quick check on gut feelings reveals the overwhelming majority of UAE residents are optimistic about this year.
This is always a good sign because as one contemplates change, whether political or otherwise, a positive attitude always helps to carry it through successfully.
Islamic movements are increasingly influencing politics
(all figures in %) |
| Strongly agree | 37 |
| Slightly agree | 36 |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 16 |
| Slightly disagree | 5 |
| Strongly disagree | 3 |
| Don't know | 4 |
| Religion should not be involved in politics |
| Strongly agree | 67 |
| Slightly agree | 8 |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 6 |
| Slightly disagree | 8 |
| Strongly disagree | 11 |
| Don't know | 1 |
| Islamic movements' political influence has a positive impact upon society |
| Strongly agree | 18 |
| Slightly agree | 16 |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 20 |
| Slightly disagree | 14 |
| Strongly disagree | 26 |
| Don't know | 5 |
| Democratisation will increase in the Middle East |
| Strongly agree | 22 |
| Slightly agree | 39 |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 15 |
| Slightly disagree | 10 |
| Strongly disagree | 8 |
| Don't know | 7 |
